Valuation in crypto is contextual
Ethereum cannot be valued like a mature cash-flow business in the way public equities often are. The more practical question is whether ETH looks compressed or extended relative to its own historical structure.
Three useful lenses
- Long-run model position
- Trend quality
- Volatility and drawdown pressure
If ETH looks cheap on a long-run model but trend is still deteriorating, the market may be early rather than attractive. If ETH looks extended but structure remains clean, the market may still be stronger than valuation alone suggests.
Bottom line
Overvalued and undervalued are not binary states. In Ethereum, they are best treated as probabilistic conditions that need confirmation from the broader market picture.